I see the phrase, “it’s different this time,” quite often, and I honestly feel sorry for people who use it as though it settles the discussion.
The reason it bothers me is because it isn’t an argument. It’s a rhetorical shortcut. Instead of engaging with the evidence, it’s essentially saying, “Anyone who disagrees with me must be making the same mistake people always make.” That’s not analysis. It’s a conversation stopper.
As investors, we don’t improve by reducing every disagreement to a cliché. We improve by examining evidence, questioning our assumptions, and remaining open to being wrong. The phrase often reflects confirmation bias, a closed mindset, and sometimes even contempt for people who see the world differently. None of those qualities help us become better investors, which is why I generally dismiss it when I hear it.
I’ve been investing long enough to hear some version of “this is a bubble” almost every single year. Michael Burry has issued repeated crash warnings dating back to 2015. Jeremy Grantham has warned about “superbubbles” for years, including major warnings in 2021, 2022, and again during the AI rally in 2024. Even outside of those two, there is never a shortage of respected investors, economists, and commentators convinced that the next collapse is just around the corner.
The truth is, this time is different. Every cycle is different. The internet was different. Mobile computing was different. Cloud computing was different. AI is different. That’s not a controversial statement. It’s also true that every cycle shares characteristics with previous ones. Human psychology doesn’t change. Speculation doesn’t change. Valuations still matter. Capital still gets misallocated. Both statements can be true at the same time.
That’s where the edge comes from. Not from insisting that history always repeats, and not from pretending history is irrelevant, but from understanding where it rhymes and where it genuinely diverges. Good investors look for that nuance. If you refuse to acknowledge the similarities, you’ll likely overpay for hype. If you refuse to acknowledge the differences, you’ll spend your investing career waiting for yesterday’s crash while tomorrow’s opportunities pass you by.
